Total investment
€3.07M
100% · uses
Acquisition price €3.0M plus closing costs (legal, notary, registry, transfer tax) at approximately 2.5%.
CEIBAProperties
Investor Materials
Case Studies
CS · 01 / 2026
Case Study 01.
Malpica de Tajo.
A 141-hectare integrated agricultural acquisition.
This document records the financial structure, operating thesis, and risk register of the first integrated agricultural acquisition in the CEIBA Properties portfolio. The asset combines mature olive and almond plantations generating immediate cash yield with a 20-hectare conversion to organic pistachio that drives medium-term capital appreciation.
Acquisition
€3.07M
Total investment incl. closing
Equity / Debt
30 / 70
€900K equity · €2.10M debt
Target IRR
35%
Base case · 16-year hold
An integrated asset within the CEIBA Properties model.
CEIBA Properties operates three coordinated lines: Madrid Real Estate, Land Acquisition, and Long-Term Agricultural Operations focused on Mediterranean crops with global demand and long productive cycles. Malpica is the first asset that exercises the agricultural line in its full operational form — direct ownership and direct operation, without sale-leaseback intermediation.
Pillar I
Long-Term Ownership
Investment horizons measured in decades, not quarters.
Malpica is modelled on a 15+ year hold with explicit option for indefinite ownership. Land is a perpetual asset. Cash yield compounds; the capital base is preserved.
Pillar II · Applied here
Scarcity-Driven Assets
141 hectares with a 25-year water concession in a stressed aquifer.
Castilla-La Mancha faces structural water stress; concessions are increasingly difficult to obtain or renew. The recently-renewed 25-year concession is itself an appreciating asset embedded in the property.
Pillar III
Operational Excellence
Direct operation with technical depth.
CEIBA operates the asset directly — agronomists, on-site capataz, contracted services — with quarterly KPIs at parcel level: kg/ha, €/ha, margin per crop. Accountability replaces absentee management.
Land area
141ha
Four crops, mixed regimes
Total investment
€3.07M
Price + closing costs
Target IRR
35%
Base case · 16-yr hold
DSCR Year 5
4.3×
EBITDA / interest
EBITDA · 2030
€451K
64% margin
NAV · Year 10
€6.9M
Land + cash − debt
Plot 02 · Almendro Lauranne · 50 ha regadío"Suelo arcilloso de retención excepcional"
Plot 04 · Olivar Cornicabra · 51 ha establecidas"Plantación de 2010, en plena producción"
Vista panorámica · perfil de cultivos"Malpica de Tajo · 40 km al oeste de Toledo"
Four production units across two water regimes.
The 141-hectare property is composed of four discrete production units. Three are operational and generate cash from year one; the fourth (20 hectares of dryland) is scheduled for conversion to organic pistachio in 2027.
Crop unit
Hectáreas
Régimen
Plantación
Status 2025
Yield (kg/ha)
€/kg base
EBITDA/ha estab.
Pistacho ECO
UCB1 · Greenfield
20.00
Regadío
2027
Pre-productivo
2,200
8.12
19,187
Almendro Regadío
Lauranne · Mature
50.00
Regadío
2021
Plena producción
1,700
4.00
6,619
Almendro Secano
Lauranne · Dryland
20.00
Secano
2021
Plena producción
765
4.00
2,250
Olivar Cornicabra
Superintensivo · 39% reg / 61% sec
51.00
Mixto
2010
Establecido
1,760
3.50
3,225
From kilogram to EBITDA, by hectare.
Each crop unit is benchmarked at its stabilised production year. The 80/20 cost rule is applied to each cultivar with cost ratios sourced from CLM regional cost benchmarks. Variable costs scale with hectares; fixed plot OPEX is allocated proportionally.
Pistacho ECO · stabilised year (2034)
€/ha · 20 ha
Producción
kg/ha
2,200
Precio venta (ECO)
€/kg
9.71
Ingreso bruto
21,362
Costes variables
100%
−1,957
Riego
35%
−685
Recolección
25%
−489
Fitosanitarios
15%
−294
Fertilización
10%
−196
Poda
10%
−196
Otros (cert. ECO)
5%
−98
OPEX fijo (asignado)
−219
EBITDA / ha
90%
19,187
Vecería año impar 1,300 kg/ha → EBITDA/ha ≈ €10.6K. CAPEX plantación €12,000/ha en 2027.
Almendro Regadío · stabilised (2030)
€/ha · 50 ha
Producción
kg/ha
1,700
Precio venta convencional
€/kg
4.66
Ingreso bruto
7,921
Costes variables
100%
−1,275
Riego
30%
−383
Recolección
30%
−383
Fitosanitarios
15%
−191
Poda
12%
−153
Fertilización
8%
−102
Otros
5%
−64
OPEX fijo (asignado)
−27
EBITDA / ha
84%
6,619
Plantación 2021, en plena producción desde 2026. Sin CAPEX adicional requerido.
Almendro Secano · stabilised (2030)
€/ha · 20 ha
Producción (45% del regadío)
kg/ha
765
Precio venta convencional
€/kg
4.66
Ingreso bruto
3,565
Costes variables
100%
−1,275
Riego (mantenimiento)
30%
−383
Recolección
30%
−383
Fitosanitarios
15%
−191
Poda
12%
−153
Fertilización
8%
−102
Otros
5%
−64
OPEX fijo (asignado)
−40
EBITDA / ha
63%
2,250
Mismo coste/ha que regadío pero solo 45% productividad — sostiene operación pero no contribuye a margen incremental.
Olivar Cornicabra · año normal (2030)
€/ha eq · 35.2 ha eq.
Producción aceite (16% rend.)
kg/ha
1,760
Precio AOVE convencional
€/kg
3.86
Ingreso bruto
6,802
Costes variables
100%
−3,394
Recolección (2 pasadas mec.)
35%
−1,188
Riego (goteo)
25%
−848
Fertilización + fitosan.
20%
−679
Poda anual mec.
12%
−407
Otros (molino, gestión)
8%
−272
OPEX fijo (asignado)
−183
EBITDA / ha
47%
3,225
Vecería cada 4 años → 7,000 kg/ha aceituna (vs 11,000) → EBITDA cae a €750/ha equivalente.
Crop attribution at full operational steady state.
In 2030 the pistachio unit is in its third pre-productive year and contributes a maintenance drag of €−38.7K. The three productive crops generate €489K of crop-level EBITDA. The asset clears its operating costs and produces a 64% consolidated EBITDA margin.
Consolidated P&L by crop · FY 2030
€ totales · año 5
| Cultivo | Ha | kg/ha | Producción total | €/kg | Ingresos | Costes var. | OPEX fijo | EBITDA | Margen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistacho ECO (pre-productivo) | 20 | 0 | 0 | 8.97 | 0 | −34,778 | −3,960 | −38,738 | — |
| Almendro Regadío | 50 | 1,700 | 85,000 | 4.66 | 396,070 | −63,760 | −1,358 | 330,953 | 84% |
| Almendro Secano | 20 | 765 | 15,300 | 4.66 | 71,293 | −25,504 | −792 | 44,997 | 63% |
| Olivar Cornicabra | 51 | 1,760 | 61,952 (aceite) | 3.86 | 239,383 | −119,468 | −6,449 | 113,466 | 47% |
| Subtotal cultivos productivos | 121 | — | — | — | 706,746 | −208,732 | −8,599 | 489,416 | 69% |
| OPEX fijo común finca (residual) | — | — | — | — | — | — | −3,960 | −3,960 | — |
| Total finca consolidado | 141 | — | — | — | 706,746 | −243,510 | −12,559 | 450,677 | 64% |
Read: el pistacho aún no genera ingresos en 2030 — su drag operativo es €−38.7K. A partir de 2031 entra en producción comercial, llevando EBITDA a €554K (2031) → €929K (2034 pico) → €1,071K (2040).
A 16-year revenue path with two structural inflections.
Revenue grows continuously from €492K (2025) to €1.41M (2040). The first inflection is the first pistachio harvest in 2031; the second is the pistachio plenitude reached around 2034. Olivar vecería cycles every four years are visible as periodic dips.
Annual revenue by crop · stack chart, € totals
Pistacho
Almendro Reg
Almendro Sec
Olivar
From revenue to net income, year by year.
Each line is built from the underlying crop sub-models. Below EBITDA: the structure carries €105K of annual interest (5% on €2.10M), conservative depreciation on plantation CAPEX, and a 25% Spanish corporate tax rate. The principal is treated bullet-style and amortised at exit / refinancing.
Income statement cascade · FY 2025 – 2040, € totales
7 reference years
| Concepto | 2025 | 2027 | 2030 | 2031 | 2034 | 2035 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue by crop | |||||||
| Pistacho ECO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91,501 | 427,246 | 257,513 | 481,148 |
| Almendro Regadío | 300,000 | 361,407 | 396,070 | 408,348 | 447,514 | 461,387 | 537,476 |
| Almendro Secano | 54,000 | 65,053 | 71,293 | 73,503 | 80,553 | 83,050 | 96,746 |
| Olivar Cornicabra | 137,974 | 225,576 | 239,383 | 244,171 | 259,116 | 264,298 | 291,807 |
| Total revenue | 491,974 | 652,036 | 706,746 | 817,523 | 1,214,428 | 1,066,248 | 1,407,176 |
| Operating costs | |||||||
| Pistacho — pre-prod. maintenance | −30,000 | −31,827 | −34,778 | −35,822 | −39,143 | −40,317 | −46,739 |
| Almendro Regadío — variable | −55,000 | −58,350 | −63,760 | −65,673 | −71,763 | −73,915 | −85,688 |
| Almendro Secano — variable | −22,000 | −23,340 | −25,504 | −26,269 | −28,705 | −29,566 | −34,275 |
| Olivar — variable | −105,593 | −110,938 | −119,468 | −122,455 | −131,871 | −135,167 | −152,929 |
| Fixed plot OPEX | −11,100 | −11,662 | −12,559 | −12,873 | −13,862 | −14,209 | −16,076 |
| Total operating costs | −223,693 | −236,116 | −256,069 | −263,091 | −285,344 | −293,175 | −335,708 |
| EBITDA | 268,282 | 415,920 | 450,677 | 554,431 | 929,085 | 773,072 | 1,071,468 |
| EBITDA margin | 55% | 64% | 64% | 68% | 77% | 73% | 76% |
| Financing & tax | |||||||
| Interest expense (5% on €2.10M) | −105,000 | −105,000 | −105,000 | −105,000 | −105,000 | −105,000 | −105,000 |
| D&A — plantation amortisation | −15,000 | −25,000 | −25,000 | −25,000 | −25,000 | −25,000 | −25,000 |
| Profit before tax | 148,282 | 285,920 | 320,677 | 424,431 | 799,085 | 643,072 | 941,468 |
| Corporate tax (25%) | −37,071 | −71,480 | −80,169 | −106,108 | −199,771 | −160,768 | −235,367 |
| NET INCOME · post-financing & post-tax | 111,211 | 214,440 | 240,508 | 318,323 | 599,314 | 482,304 | 706,101 |
| Net margin | 23% | 33% | 34% | 39% | 49% | 45% | 50% |
Notes: D&A is a straight-line estimate on the depreciable plantation asset (land is not depreciated). Pistachio CAPEX of €240K in 2027 is recorded against free cash flow in that year but is not expensed through P&L in a single period.
Capital sources, leverage, and security.
Senior debt
€2.10M
70% LTV · sources
5.0% fixed · 15-year tenor · interest-only with bullet amortisation. Caja Rural Castilla-La Mancha. Personal aval + cross-collateral with existing CEIBA portfolio.
Equity
€900K
30% · sources
CEIBA Properties direct equity contribution. Standard recourse to LP capital base, no preferred / promote layered at this stage.
Returns to equity, fully levered.
Equity IRR
35%
On €900K equity contributed, including terminal exit at 4.5% cap rate at end of year 16.
Cash-on-Cash · Yr 5
38%
Free cash flow €346K / equity €900K. Pistachio not yet contributing.
DSCR · Yr 5
4.3×
EBITDA €450.7K / interest €105K. Bank covenant typically >1.25×.
NAV · Yr 10
€6.9M
Land €4.4M (3.5% appreciation) + cumulative cash €4.6M − debt €2.1M.
Cash to equity, year on year.
Cumulative cash to equity reaches €8.7M by 2040, driven by stable cash yield from year 1 and the pistachio inflection from year 6. The 2027 dip reflects the €240K plantation CAPEX investment.
Annual FCF and cumulative cash · to equity
Annual FCF
Cumulative cash
Operating plan and execution roadmap.
CEIBA operates the property directly. The operating plan is organised around six workstreams that begin on day one. Reporting is monthly to ownership and quarterly to lenders.
01
On-the-ground operating structure
Pure operator model — direct CEIBA staff on a minimum footing combined with externally contracted services. No tenant farmer; no LAR layer at this asset.
▸Hire local capataz with proven track in almond and superintensive olive groves.
▸Contracted services: ATRIA fitosanitario, mechanical harvesting, mechanised pruning.
▸Commercial almazara partnership for AOVE Cornicabra processing.
▸Cooperative or broker channel for almond grain commercialisation.
02
Pistachio reconversion plan
20 hectares of dryland converted to UCB1 organic pistachio. CAPEX €240K in 2027 (planting material, irrigation infrastructure, tutoring, ECO certification process).
▸Soil analysis, planting layout design, rootstock selection — Q4 2026.
▸CAECLM organic certification application, planting reference date (3-yr conversion).
▸Planting March 2027 · first harvest 2031 · plenitude 2034.
▸Negotiate additional water allocation with CHT (current concession 25 yr).
03
Yield optimisation on productive crops
Almond and olive units are already cash-generative from 2025. Focus is on execution discipline: pest pressure, harvest timing, marketing channel selection.
▸Aphid + spider-mite treatment programme through August (per site visit).
▸Evaluate organic conversion of almond unit in 2027 (+25% premium on €4/kg).
▸Evaluate Cornicabra → Arbequina superintensive transition over 8–10 yr horizon.
▸Soil moisture sensors and night-irrigation telemetry for water efficiency.
04
Governance and reporting
Monthly P&L and operating KPIs to ownership; quarterly financial reporting to lenders; annual independent valuation; annual external audit before fiscal close.
▸Monthly dashboard: production vs budget, cost vs plan, FCF.
▸Operating KPIs at parcel level: kg/ha, €/ha, margin per crop.
▸Annual valuation by registered rural appraiser.
▸Compliance: PAC, agroambiental, organic certification, LAR optionality.
05
Strategic optionality
The asset carries optionality beyond the base P&L. Real options not modelled include water-rights revaluation, organic / DOP premium capture, and future sale-leaseback structuring.
▸Toledo data-centre cluster: ~12 ha equivalent water consumption per facility.
▸Permitted residential structure (granite pre-sourced) — operator residence or separate sale.
▸Two additional drilling points identified; aquifer at 150 m.
▸Carbon credits + CAP eco-schemes: secondary revenue not yet recognised.
06
Exit and refinancing windows
Three potential exit windows are pre-identified, in addition to the indefinite hold scenario. The model assumes a terminal exit at 4.5% cap rate at year 16.
▸Year 5–7: refinance with cash generated; reduce debt or distribute.
▸Year 10: NAV €6.9M; potential partial sale of olive unit to institutional fund.
▸Year 15+: full exit at 4.5% terminal cap rate (modelled in base IRR).
▸Indefinite hold: perpetual yield generator; no forced sale.
Risks and mitigants.
The risk register is structured to absorb the strongest version of the bear case, not the easiest. Quantitative stress tests for the most material risks are documented in the side ledger.
Severity
Risk
Description
Mitigation
High
Water concession reduction
Regulatory · Operational
CHT is reviewing concessions due to aquifer stress in CLM. EU Water Framework Directive review in 2027 could reduce allocations 20–40% with no compensation. Both the regadío olivar and the regadío almendro depend critically on water.
Mitigant: 25-year concession recently renewed. Two additional drilling points identified. Soil moisture sensors and night-irrigation reduce consumption baseline. Crop mix already includes 20 ha of dryland tolerance.
High
Bank does not extend 70% LTV
Financial · Closing
Spanish rural lenders are conservative. Caja Rural CLM may underwrite 50–60% only, particularly without a track record of operating this asset class. A reduced LTV would require additional equity or vendor financing.
Mitigant: personal aval and cross-collateral with existing portfolio. Plan B at 60% LTV reduces IRR from 35% → ~26% (still attractive). Plan C: vendor mezzanine €300K bridging the gap.
Medium
Almond and AOVE price decline
Market
Almond: California returns to production after drought, pressure on €4/kg. AOVE: spot 2025 already corrected from €5.5 to €3.5/kg. A further 25% decline would compress the case.
Mitigant: ECO conversion (+25% premium) and DOP Toledo for olive. Almond at 1,700 kg/ha has break-even at €2.5/kg — comfortable safety margin.
Medium
Pistachio CAPEX overrun
Project · 2027
€12K/ha assumes UCB1 standard plant + irrigation + structure. If plant material, irrigation hardware or certification fees rise in the next 12 months, requirement could move to €15–18K/ha.
Mitigant: lock vivero contract before planting. Reserve 15% buffer (€36K) in dedicated account. Alternative: defer planting one year to compress costs.
Medium
Absentee operator execution risk
Operational
CEIBA is Madrid-based. Without on-the-ground full-time staff, execution depends on the contracted capataz and external services. Classic absentee farming risks: lower execution quality, theft, lack of micro-optimisation.
Mitigant: mandatory monthly site visits + 24/7 telemetry + parcel-level KPIs. Capataz bonus tied to actual margin vs budget. Sellers (Isidoro / Rubén) retained as advisors for 12–24 months post-closing.
Medium
Idiosyncratic tail risk
Force majeure
Not modelled: catastrophic late frost (−80% one year), wildfire, CAP regulatory change, fungal pandemic (Xylella in olives). Individual probability low; combined over 16 years: ~30–40%.
Mitigant: mandatory AGROSEGURO agricultural insurance with frost + hail + drought coverage. Cost embedded in fixed OPEX. Coverage is partial but materially reduces downside.
Low
Olive vecería deeper than modelled
Agronomic
Model assumes 3+1 cycle with 7,000 kg/ha vecería year. Cornicabra is historically more volatile than Arbequina. Could revert to 2+2 cycle with deeper troughs.
Mitigant: vecería years (2029, 2033, 2037) already integrated into projections. Optionality to transition to Arbequina superintensive over 8–10 years allows productive reset.
Biases in the analysis itself.
The internal model carries identifiable biases. They are disclosed and stress-tested rather than concealed — disclosure is a discipline, not a weakness.
Type
Bias
Description & example
Stress test
Projection
Optimism on future prices
Linear extrapolation
Price CAGR assumed: pistachio 2%, almond 3.1%, AOVE 2%. Assumes continuity of premium trends. Agricultural prices are historically cyclical, not linear. Example: AOVE moved €2.5 (2022) → €5.5 (2024) → €3.5 (2025) — a 2% CAGR straight-line conceals that volatility.
Stress: price CAGR set to 0% across all three crops → IRR 35% → ~25%. Still investable. Yellow flag, not red.
Anchoring
Anchoring on the seller's price
Negotiation framing
€3.0M is the negotiated price. Independent conservative valuation produced €1.79–2.05M. By construction the case is calibrated to make the negotiated price work — not to validate whether the price is correct. Example: if true value is €2.3M, paying €3.0M means €700K of premium paid to the seller, recoverable only over many years.
Stress: external independent valuation before closing. If reported value is below €2.5M, renegotiate or walk away from the transaction.
Confirmation
Selective comparable cost data
Source bias
Cost premises (€1,100 almond, €3,000 olive, €1,500 pistachio per hectare) are sourced from producer associations and consulting firms — pro-investment angle. Realised costs for non-local operators tend to be 10–20% higher.
Stress: +15% applied across the operating cost base → IRR 35% → ~30%. Comfortable. Apply 10% contingency in year-1 operating budget.
Tail
Underestimated idiosyncratic events
Out-of-model
Not in the model: catastrophic frost (−80% one year), wildfire, CAP regulatory change, fungal pandemic (Xylella). Individual probability low, but combined over 16 years ~30–40%.
Stress: AGROSEGURO insurance coverage is mandatory. Cost embedded in fixed OPEX. Insurance is partial mitigation but materially lowers tail.
CEIBA Properties
Investing in Land,
Legacy & Long-Term Value
Madrid Real Estate · Land Acquisition · Long-Term Agricultural Operations focused on Mediterranean crops with global demand and long productive cycles.
This document
Case Study 01
Records the financial structure, operating plan and risk register of the first integrated agricultural acquisition in the portfolio. Issued for internal investment committee, lender package, and board materials.
Lines of business
- · Long-Term Ownership
- · Scarcity-Driven Assets
- · Operational Excellence
- · Sale-Leaseback (separate)
Contact
Schedule consultation
ger@ceibaproperties.com
www.ceibaproperties.com
Madrid · Toledo · Castilla-La Mancha
Una hectárea bien comprada sigue produciendo cuando todo lo demás falla.
CS-01-2026 · Confidential · v7
This document is prepared for internal investor and lender purposes. It contains forward-looking statements based on assumptions about future events, including price trajectories, agricultural yields, water concessions, regulatory frameworks, and capital market conditions. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. The analysis does not constitute an offer of securities, an investment recommendation, or financial advice. Independent verification by qualified professionals is recommended before any investment decision.